Who could leave the Moto3 World Championship after 2026?

The Moto3 World Championship is known for having one of the closest grids in motorcycle racing, with lap times often separated by only a couple of seconds across the entire field. It's also a championship where even the smallest setup detail can make a huge difference, if managed well or poorly. Every year, many young riders, with varying levels of Grand Prix experience, emerge from this category. At the same time, every year we see riders performing way below expectations, and who not only risk losing their seat in Moto3, but could potentially remain out of the Grand Prix paddock altogether.

Here are a few riders who, unless they dramatically turn things around in the second half of the season, risk seeing their Moto3 chapter come to an end after the 2026 campaign.

DISCLAIMER: This article contains analysis and considerations based on results and other factors. Therefore, it should not be considered as confirmed news.

Ryusei Yamanaka

Just one year ago, it would have been illogical to include Yamanaka among the riders who could be leaving the Grand Prix paddock. The Japanese rider, whose story I shared last year through a lovely interview, had established himself with several podium finishes over the past few years, and the 2025 season was by far his strongest one on the world stage, in terms of both results and points.

That level of performance feels like a distant memory in 2026. After crashing in the opening race in Thailand, suffering a heavy highside while fighting with the leading group, Yamanaka has never really returned to the front of the field. Across the ten races from Goiânia to Sachsenring, he only managed one top ten finish (9th in Germany), while the rest of his results have been between 11th and 15th place or even outside the points. Heading into the British Grand Prix, Yamanaka sits only 21st in the championship with 22 points, far away from the level he proved he could reach especially during 2025.

If this trend continues, Yamanaka could definitely find himself without a seat after seven seasons in Moto3 (which he joined full-time in 2020). As for his future, I personally see him moving to a championship such as the Moto2 European Championship, the All Japan series or even the FIM Endurance World Championship (he already took part in the Suzuka 8 Hours), rather than World Supersport or World Sportbike. But I could be wrong...

Joel Kelso

After spending four seasons in the World Championship on KTM machinery (with CIP, PrüstelGP, BOÉ and MTA teams), Kelso's adaptation to the GRYD Racing Honda has taken considerably longer than expected.

Every time there seems to be a sign of progress, such as a top ten finish or a strong qualifying performance, Joel Kelso ends up struggling again, often with a fair share of bad luck as well. Two 8th-place results remain his best finishes, while his tally of just 40 points after the opening 11 Grands Prix puts him outside of the top 15 in the championship standings. For a rider who, until 2025, was regularly fighting for podiums and dreaming of stepping up to Moto2, this is extremely far from where he could be, especially if we consider that his teammate Eddie O'Shea has shown great progress compared to 2025.

Unless he turns things around during the second half of the season, it's difficult to imagine Kelso remaining in Moto3 in 2027. At the same time, he has been collaborating with CFMoto and riding in Australia the 675 SR-R, a machine which is already used in the British Sportbike Championship and recently introduced into the Italian CIV Championship with Boccetti Racing (ridden by Valentino Casalboni and tested by WorldSPB rider Marco Gaggi). Could Kelso eventually become CFMoto's main rider for a future Sportbike World Championship project? Right now it sounds like science fiction, but you never know...

Scott Ogden

In his fifth World Championship season and his second year aboard the CIP-Green Power KTM, Scott Ogden was expected to take another step forward and regularly fight not necessarily for podiums, but at least for top five or top seven finishes.

Instead, things have gone in the opposite direction. Two ninth places, in Austin and Brno, remain his best results, while his 20th place in the standings with 27 points after the first half of the season tells its own story. The main source of concern is the comparison with teammate Adrián Cruces, who has generally been stronger despite being in his rookie season. The same weaknesses as in the past remain evident in the case of Ogden: low strength in the fight and limited self-confidence, something Ogden himself admitted when interviewed by Palmen in Motorradsport in 2025.

At this rate, especially with another increasingly competitive British rider like Eddie O'Shea and other talents coming up, Ogden's time in the GP paddock could soon come to an end. The WorldSBK paddock might offer him the perfect opportunity to rebuild his career, whether in World Supersport or the World Sportbike.

Nicola Carraro

Carraro has already shown that he is capable of fighting for points and even top ten finishes in Moto3. Entering his third full World Championship season, he was expected to take another step forward and become a consistent top ten contender, especially since he remained with the same Honda machinery and the same team (Snipers) as in 2025.

Instead, 2026 has become a nightmare for the Italian rider. Two 16th-place finishes are his best results, while several races have ended in crashes or even last-place finishes. Most strikingly, he is the only rider who didn't score any point before the summer break. The reasons behind this dramatic decline may be numerous and have never been officially explained, but the stopwatch and the results speak for themselves. At this point, it's fair to wonder whether Carraro and the Snipers Team will even make it to the end of the season.

If things continue this way, Carraro (whose age of 24 certainly does not work in his favour) will most likely find himself outside Grand Prix racing after 2026. Hopefully his career will continue elsewhere. A move to the Supersport category either in Italian CIV Championship or even the World Championship itself, should the opportunity and financial backing arise, could provide the fresh start he needs.

Zen Mitani

The Japanese rider won the Asia Talent Cup in 2024 and claimed two podium finishes in the Red Bull MotoGP Rookies Cup during 2025. However, he ultimately finished only seventh in the Rookies Cup standings and collected just a series of top ten finishes in the Moto3 Junior World Championship.

Looking at his 2026 campaign, it's easy to think that Mitani may have reached the Moto3 World Championship a little too early. His only two points so far came from two 15th-place finishes in Goiânia and Le Mans, and those were only possible because Adrián Fernández was disqualified from six races. Otherwise, Mitani would also be sitting on zero points alongside Carraro. Throughout the season he has struggled during virtually every race weekend, spending most of his time at the back of the field alongside riders such as Carraro, Ruché Moodley and Leo Rammerstorfer.

With a brutal comparison against sensational teammate Veda Pratama, and several Asian riders pushing hard from JuniorGP and the Rookies Cup through podiums and victories (especially Kiandra Ramadhipa and Ryota Ogiwara), Mitani's place in Moto3 appears to be hanging by a thread. That said, it is important to remember that he is still a rookie, and there is certainly a chance he gets another opportunity. After all, several riders have endured difficult debut seasons in Moto3, before making major improvements in their second year. Eddie O'Shea is a current example, but for what he was beginning to achieve in 2021, I also think about Jason Dupasquier...

There are certainly other names that could be discussed, but in my opinion these are the five riders currently under the biggest amount of pressure. Let me know what you think on Instagram (@palmen_in_motorradsport) 😊